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Ethiopia Controversy: The Renaissance Dam

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For almost the past decade, Ethiopia’s renaissance dam project has created tension between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Each country has the legitimate right to the Nile’s running water. However, with neither time nor negotiations yielding any tangible solutions, experts fear the escalation of the problem.

 Africa’s biggest hydroelectric power plant

Since 2011, Ethiopia embarked on the journey of creating Africa’s biggest hydroelectric power plant. Not only can the dam solve the country’s dire electric situation, but it can also fuel Ethiopia’s manufacturing and industrial dreams. Therefore, the dam can play a vital role in aiding the country’s economy.

According to Ethiopia’s reports, the dam can produce a massive 6,000 megawatts of electricity. Thus, the renaissance dam will be Africa’s biggest hydroelectric power generator and will rank as the world’s seventh-largest power source of this kind. 

“It is about lifting millions of its people out of abject poverty and meeting their energy, water, and food security needs,” stated the East African nation’s foreign ministry. “Ethiopia is exercising its legitimate right to use its water resources in full respect of international law and the principle of causing no significant harm,” they added. 

Furthermore, 2021 reports state that the dam’s construction is almost finished, and experts expect it to reach full capacity in 2023. 

Egypt’s concern

Since the beginning, Egypt has voiced its deep concern while rectifying its opposition against the dam. The Nile river is Egypt’s most valued source of water. Thus, any threat to the Nile’s stable flow of water is a threat to the country’s survival. 

Additionally, back in 1929 and 1959, a treaty gave Egypt and Sudan the right to almost all of the Nile’s water. The documents even gave Egypt the right to veto any project that might affect its share of the water. Despite that, Ethiopia began the construction of the dam without consulting Egypt, igniting the tension.

Thus, in 2020, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, appealed to the UN, arguing the dam’s threat to Egypt’s water security. “We in Egypt populate the most arid of the Nile Basin riparian states and one of the most water-impoverished nations on earth. This harsh reality compels us to inhabit no more than 7% of our territory along a slender strip of green and a fertile delta teeming with millions of souls, whose annual share of water is no more than 560 cubic meters, which places Egypt well below the international threshold of water scarcity,” he said. “Survival is not a question of choice, but an imperative of nature.”

Sudan’s position 

In the beginning, the Sudanese government favored the dam’s construction. Not only can the GDEM help solve the country’s power deficits, but it can also regulate the flow of the river. However, tides began to change after the failure of the African Union-brokered negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in Kinshasa.

Because of the country’s geographic position between Ethiopia and Egypt, Sudan has a lot more to lose in case of a water war. Yasir Abbas, the Water Resources Minister in Sudan, explained that by neglecting to solve the issue with Egypt, Ethiopia is threatening the country’s national security. 

“Without an agreement, the Gerd is really a threat to the people downstream, both the environment and the livelihoods of the people,” he added.

Therefore, Sudan wants Ethiopia to sign a legally binding agreement, instead of following mere guidelines, to preserve the peace, security, and stability between the three countries. Furthermore, Abbas also argued that Sudan will even suffer more than Egypt if the dam ended up reducing the flow of the river. 

No intention of causing harm

While addressing both Sudan and Egypt, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed tweeted that “Ethiopia, in developing Abbay River for its needs, has no intention of causing harm to lower riparian countries.” 

The tweet also noted the dam’s success stating “Heavy rains last year enabled successful 1st filling of the GERD while the presence of the GERD itself has undoubtedly prevented severe flooding in neighboring Sudan.”

Nevertheless, Egypt is still pushing for a legally binding agreement under international law before Ethiopia starts to officially fill the dam. Moreover, the three countries agreed to conclude the ongoing trilateral negotiations on June 27.

References:
Al Jazeera. (2021, June 16). Ethiopia rejects Arab League resolution on Renaissance Dam. Arab League News | Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/16/ethiopia-rejects-arab-league-resolution-on-renaissance-damBBC News. (2021, April 22). Gerd: Sudan talks tough with Ethiopia over River Nile dam. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56799672Hulsman, J. C., Coffey, L., Cengiz, S., Laipson, E., Nayar, R. S., Yakis, Y., Al-Habtoor, K. A., Abbas, F. J., Kane, F., Mekelberg, Y., Alamuddin, B., Al-Rashed, A., Cengiz, S., Shakra, E. A., Al-Qassim, M. H., Al-Shehri, H., Meyer, C., Rafizadeh, M., Belbagi, Z. M., . . . Ahmad, T. (2021, January 6). Future of GERD talks blurry as Sudan stands firm. Arab News. https://www.arabnews.com/node/1788376Mutahi, B. B. (2020, January 13). Egypt-Ethiopia row: The trouble over a giant Nile dam. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-50328647Patel, S. (2020, July 2). Egypt Warns Ethiopian Mega-Dam May Provoke Conflict, Crises. POWER Magazine. https://www.powermag.com/egypt-warns-ethiopian-mega-dam-may-provoke-conflict-crises/?itm_source=parsely-apiPatel, S. (2021, May 27). Tensions Intensify as Ethiopia Readies to Start GERD Mega-Dam Turbines. POWER Magazine. https://www.powermag.com/tensions-intensify-as-ethiopia-readies-to-start-gerd-mega-dam-turbines/

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Hormuz Gets Diplomacy While Gaza and Lebanon Keep Bleeding

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The latest US-Iran talks show how quickly the world can move when a crisis threatens oil, shipping, and regional markets. After the Strait of Hormuz became a flashpoint, Washington moved into negotiations. Although the attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran were unprovoked, the resulting ceasefire is a reflection of the enfeebled power of the United States and Israel.

However, one thing is evident: when the global economy feels pressure, urgency arrives. But that urgency is not being shown to Gaza and Lebanon. This is the central problem with the current regional diplomacy. The Strait of Hormuz is being treated as a global emergency, while Israel’s continued genocide in Gaza and violence in Lebanon is treated as a difficult-to-manage side issue.

Why Hormuz Became the Priority

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes. Around one-fifth of global oil and natural gas normally passes through this narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. When the US-Israel escalation with Iran raised the risk of disruption, the concern was immediate because any closure or attack near Hormuz could affect energy prices, insurance costs, shipping schedules, and the wider global economy.

Following a ceasefire announcement, the US indicated it would waive sanctions on Iran for 60 days after the first talks under a new peace framework. The talks, held in Switzerland and mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, were described as part of a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days. Moreover, they included a communications mechanism to help ensure the safe passage of commercial ships through Hormuz.

This does not simply mean the crisis is over. Iran and the US still disagree over a lot of issues, like nuclear inspections and the details of the deal. Gulf states remain worried about Iranian power, Israeli escalation, and the possibility of another breakdown. But the speed of the diplomatic response tells its own story. Hormuz became urgent because Hormuz affects global trade.

The Problem Is Not Diplomacy but Selective Diplomacy

Keeping Hormuz open matters due to the fact that millions of people could feel the economic shock of a major disruption. The problem is not that diplomats are trying to calm the waterway. The problem is that the same level of pressure is not applied when Israel keeps killing innocent Palestinians and Lebanese civilians.

This is where US diplomacy becomes morally exposed. Washington can move quickly when shipping lanes, oil prices, and Gulf allies are at risk. Yet when Gaza’s children are killed after a ceasefire, or when Lebanese families remain displaced from destroyed villages, the language becomes cautious, delayed, and full of exceptions for Israel.

Lebanon Shows the Limits of the Deal

Lebanon is supposed to be one of the places where regional de-escalation becomes visible. Although the interim US-Iran agreement called for ending hostilities, including in Lebanon, it is not being realized completely. Israel, however, has declared that it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon unless its unrealistic conditions are met.

This is why the Lebanon file remains so fragile. Despite withdrawing from Lebanon and providing the innocent people a sigh of relief, Israel is pushing forward. Israel has established what it calls a buffer zone about 10 km inside Lebanon, forcing local civilians from their homes and carrying out raids and demolitions in villages.

When it comes to the human cost, more than 1.2 million people were displaced during the fighting, about a fifth of Lebanon’s population. Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research indicated that more than 90,000 housing units were damaged or destroyed between March 2 and June 12. Other credible reports also highlighted that tens of thousands remain displaced because their homes are gone or their towns remain under Israeli military occupation.

Gaza Remains the Deepest Failure

Since the October 2025 ceasefire, Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,027 Palestinians and injured 3,280 others. Gaza’s Health Ministry highlighted that the total number of Palestinians killed since October 2023 has exceeded 73,041, with 173,402 wounded. These numbers do not describe a genocide moving toward peace. They describe a population still being punished while the world discusses arrangements elsewhere.

Gaza should have been discussed in the recent peace talks, too, but the world is moving towards a moral crisis. The destruction of Gaza, the blockade on aid, the brutal killing of innocent children, and the forced displacement of families are the reasons anger across the Muslim world remains so deep.

Israel Keeps Undermining Regional Peace

Any honest discussion of regional de-escalation must confront Israel’s role. The US wants Iran to lower tensions, the Gulf states want shipping security, and mediators want the fighting to stop. Yet Israel continues to act with carte blanche in Gaza and Lebanon.

There is a wide contradiction between the world’s policies. Israel is not treated as a spoiler in the same way as others are. Its attacks are framed as security needs, while Palestinian and Lebanese suffering is framed as an unfortunate fallout. This double standard is one reason ceasefire efforts keep failing in practice.

If Israel can continue bombing Gaza, occupy parts of southern Lebanon, and delay withdrawal without serious consequences, then regional calm remains fragile. It may hold for oil markets, but it will not hold for the people living under attack.

Ultimately, peace cannot be built by protecting tankers while ignoring tents, hospitals, and destroyed villages. A regional deal that treats shipping as urgent but civilian blood as negotiable is not peace. It is selective stability, built for markets before innocent people.

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UN Report Exposes Israel’s Genocide Through Targeting of Gaza’s Children

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The latest UN inquiry on Gaza’s children has changed the way this genocide must be discussed. It is no longer enough to say that children have died in large numbers, as if their deaths were only a tragic side of military operations. The UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry evidently described that Israeli authorities and the ISF have deliberately targeted Palestinian children. These actions are not limited to crimes against humanity but are a deliberate genocide.

The reason why this new finding matters is that it places the innocent children of Gaza at the centre of genocide. Unfortunately, Gaza’s children have been brutally killed by airstrikes, drones, and direct sniper fire. They have been wounded in shelters, deprived of food and medicine, pushed into disease, and left with trauma that no child should carry. Moreover, the report also extends beyond Gaza. It documented serious violations against Palestinian children in the occupied West Bank, including detention, settler violence, and mistreatment.

The Scale of Child Deaths in Gaza

Between October 7, 2023, and October 7, 2025, for two years, at least 20,179 Palestinian children were killed in Gaza. These are the official figures cited in reporting on the UN inquiry. Shockingly, children made up more than 30 percent of those killed.

On the other hand, UNICEF has also estimated that more than 50,000 children have been brutally killed or wounded since Israel’s genocide in Gaza began. These numbers show how deeply the violence has entered Palestinian family life. Especially in Gaza, almost every school, street, tent camp, and hospital corridor carries the memory of a child who was killed, injured, orphaned, or displaced.

Additionally, the UN Commission also noted Israel’s use of high-payload munitions and wide-area weapons in densely populated areas. Gaza is already a trapped and crowded strip of land where families have repeatedly been forced from one area to another. Ultimately, when heavy weapons are used in such places, children are placed directly inside or rather being hidden from genocidal risk.

Why the Word “Targeting” Matters

The most serious part of the UN report is not only the death toll. In fact, it is the finding that “Palestinian children were deliberately targeted”. That word changes the meaning of the evidence.

In this context, the commission examined cases involving children killed by quadcopter drones and sniper fire, including incidents where medical evidence suggested precise shooting. The inquiry also criticised the way Israeli forces described some killed children as “suspects,” a label that can turn even childhood into a security accusation.

This is one of the most dangerous features of Israel’s assault on Gaza. When a Palestinian child can be treated as a threat, the normal rules of humanity are ultimately turned upside down. A child searching for food, standing near a shelter, moving with family, or living in a crowded neighbourhood becomes vulnerable not only to bombs, but to a military logic that sees Palestinian life itself as suspicious.

The Ceasefire Did Not Save Gaza’s Children

The October 2025 ceasefire was supposed to reduce the killing and open a path toward stability. Yet Palestinian children have continued to die.

Gaza’s Health Ministry says more than 1,027 people have been killed since the ceasefire, including 258 children. One recent case was 12-year-old Ahmed Mohsen al-Raqab, martyred by an Israeli drone strike in al-Mawasi, the southern Gaza area where displaced families had taken shelter after being forced from other parts of the enclave.

This is why the word “ceasefire” has become painful and unrealistic for Palestinians. A ceasefire that does not protect children in displacement camps cannot be treated as peace. It becomes another political arrangement that looks stronger in statements than it does on the ground.

The Attack on Birth, Health and Childhood

The UN inquiry also looked at the conditions that allow children to be born, treated, and kept alive in Gaza. It said attacks on maternity and neonatal services endangered newborn survival and harmed Palestinians’ reproductive future. It also pointed to rising miscarriages, birth defects, and widespread psychological harm, including trauma among children.

This part of the report is an eye-opener. Genocide is not only carried out through direct killing. It is also being carried out by destroying the systems that sustain life.

A newborn in Gaza needs a safe delivery room, electricity, medicine, clean water, warmth, and trained medical staff. While a wounded child needs surgery, antibiotics, and a place to recover. A sick child needs nutrition and vaccines. When hospitals are attacked, supplies are blocked, and families are displaced again and again, childhood becomes a struggle for basic survival.

The West Bank Is Part of the Pattern

The inquiry also documented violations against Palestinian children in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem. It reported settler violence, arrests, detention, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, forced stripping, beatings, and food deprivation.

The methods are not identical to Gaza, but the impact is deeply interconnected. In Gaza, children are deliberately bombed, starved, and displaced. While in the West Bank, they are detained, intimidated, attacked by settlers, and pushed through a system that treats Palestinian childhood as a threat to be controlled.

Accountability Cannot Remain a Statement

The UN report should not become another document that governments mention briefly and then ignore. Its findings matter for the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, and every state that continues to arm, fund, or politically shield Israel.

Accountability must mean protection for children, open aid routes, medical evacuation, protection for hospitals and schools, and consequences for those responsible for attacks on innocent civilians. It must also mean ending the habit of treating Palestinian deaths as unfortunate but acceptable.

In a nutshell, children still dying after a ceasefire is not a misunderstanding but a deliberate act of genocide to wipe out the future of Gaza.

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Where Is Gaza’s International Stabilization Force and What Happened to the Ceasefire

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When Gaza’s ceasefire was announced, it was presented as more than a triumph. As a result, it was supposed to usher in a new phase of peace, prosperity, and stability. However, nothing like that happened. The Board of Peace and the International Stabilization Force remained unmaterialized ideas. Even months later, those promises look thin on the ground.

A Ceasefire That Still Leaves People Dead

What about a ceasefire that remains unable to stop brutality and killings? A ceasefire means safer movement, sufficient aid, and complete elimination of fear. Unfortunately, the people of Gaza haven’t seen that even after the announcement of a so-called “20-point plan” and the “ceasefire”.

Recently, Israeli strikes killed three Palestinians on June 11 while Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey were trying to advance the fragile truce. Days earlier, another Israeli airstrike on a large tent encampment in Gaza City killed at least seven innocent Palestinians, including two women, and injured 15 others, some of them children.

Moreover, more than 950 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire began. These numbers show why the word “ceasefire” sounds hollow to many families. A truce that cannot stop repeated deaths is not functioning as protection.

The Force That Has Not Protected Gaza

The International Stabilization Force was supposed to be a central part of Gaza’s next phase. The ceasefire plan, later tied to a UN mandate, imagined an international force that could support security, help stabilize the territory, assist transitional arrangements, and give the ceasefire practical weight.

Unfortunately, the force has not become a meaningful presence yet.

Numerous credible reports state that plans for the Gaza International Stabilization Force were in question because troop pledges had stalled. Countries expected to contribute had not made the commitments needed to turn a political idea into an operational force.

This delay matters a lot as Gaza now needs a mechanism that can protect displacement sites, secure aid routes, support safe movement, and help prevent violations. Without that, the stabilization force becomes another promise Palestinians hear about but do not feel.

Why Governments Are Hesitating

The hesitation is partly political and partly practical. Sending troops into Gaza would mean entering one of the most obliterated and contested places in the world. Foreign soldiers could be caught between Israel, armed factions, displaced civilians, and a population deeply suspicious of outside arrangements.

There are also unresolved questions about the mandate. Would the force protect civilians from all attacks, or mainly focus on disarmament? Would it monitor Israeli actions as well as Palestinian armed groups? Would Palestinians have a real voice in how it operates?

A force without legitimacy could fail quickly. But delay also has a huge cost. While governments hesitate, civilians live without a credible protection system against the genocidal acts of Israel.

Monitoring Without Enforcement

The United States was expected to close its Civil-Military Coordination Centre near Gaza as the broader Gaza plan stalled. The Centre was designed to monitor the ceasefire and help improve aid flows. This is because most people observed that it failed to deliver meaningful results.

That failure exposes the problem with symbolic mechanisms. A coordination Centre can collect information, but it cannot protect civilians unless it has authority, access, and consequences behind it. Monitoring may record violations only, but it cannot stop them adequately.

Aid Crossings Reveal the Truth

Humanitarian access is the clearest test of the ceasefire. If food, medicine, fuel, water, and shelter materials cannot enter Gaza reliably, then the truce is failing at the most basic level.

OCHA reported on June 5 that Israel had kept Zikim Crossing in northern Gaza closed for two weeks. Aid convoys were being rerouted to Kerem Shalom, as the last remaining cargo crossing. That rerouting created congestion and slowed the collection of critical supplies.

In genocide-affected Gaza, a delayed truck can mean empty kitchens, untreated wounds, missing medicine, and another night in unsafe shelter. UN Secretary-General António Guterres also urged Israel to reopen closed crossings so aid could move rapidly, safely and at scale.

How can a ceasefire that leaves aid trapped at crossings restore civilian life?

The Deadlock Behind the Crisis

Talks on Gaza’s next phase remain stuck on the issue of Hamas disarmament and complete Israeli military withdrawal. Palestinian factions had agreed to most points in the peace blueprint, but Israel is reluctant to keep its military in Palestine.

Israel is trying to hide their heinous plan of genocide advancement in the name of Hamas disarmament. While Hamas completely denies the allegations of Israel and links their efforts to a political process toward Palestinian statehood and an end to illegal occupation.

Gaza needs fewer promises and more enforceable guarantees from the international community now. Civilian shelters must be protected, aid crossings must remain open, medical evacuations must move quickly, and ceasefire violations must be reported quickly. Any stabilization force must have a clear civilian-protection mandate. Israeli withdrawal lines must be transparent, and reconstruction must be tied to Palestinian governance.

Above all, there must be consequences when civilians are killed after a ceasefire has supposedly begun.

Final Thought

Gaza’s crisis shows the danger of genocidal diplomacy without delivery. A ceasefire without enforcement is not peace. Monitoring without consequences cannot protect innocent civilians. Aid promises mean little when crossings remain highly restricted.

Palestinians were promised stability and peace. What they received is continued death, delayed protection, and a plan stronger on paper than in Gaza.

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