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The Escalating Unrest in Kazakhstan: An Explainer

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The central Asian republic, Kazakhstan, often praised for its stable democratic functioning, has been gripped by turmoil. A huge number of unprecedented unrest is popping out from across the nation. The prime minister and Cabinet have resigned, and the country is put in a state of emergency, but the protests refuse to mellow down.

Why are Kazakhs protesting? What is behind the unrest in the country? And what happens next?

Kazakhstan: An Overview of the Current Unrest

Reuters reports that the demonstrations were triggered by the government lifting price controls on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the oil-rich western Mangystau region at the start of the year. The low price of this fuel has led many Kazakhs to convert their cars to run on it.

Since Kazakhstan became independent 30 years ago, it has attracted billions of dollars in foreign investment and maintained a strong economy.

A burnt car is seen by the mayor's office on fire in Almaty, Kazakhstan on January 5.

Burnt car in front of the mayor’s office

The LPG subsidies, however, had caused Kazakhstan to suffer regular oil shortages, according to Reuters. A government measure to ease those deficits and ensure supplies reach the domestic market was the lifting of price caps. As a result, LPG prices more than doubled after the cap was lifted, resulting in protests sweeping the nation.

Why did the Entire Cabinet Resign?

Kazakhstan’s government has long been accused of suppressing critical voices. Any apprising against the government in the country has reportedly been sidelines, repressed, or co-opted.

For the majority of the nation’s democratic history, Kazakhstan was in the hand of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. In 2019, a long-time ally of Nazarbayev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took the designation. However, Nazarbayev continued to oversee the security council that controls the security and military services.

Protestors setting fire to the Mayor's office in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

On Wednesday, Tokayev reported overtaking the position of security council head from Nazarbayev. A majority of public anger in the unrest is not directed towards the current president, but Nazarbayev who is still largely regarded as the ultimate ruler. This can be inferred from the primary slogans protestors are chanting on the streets, “Shal ket!” (“Old man go”)”

However, the current crisis may serve as a catalyst for change. Tokayev forced Nazarbayev off the security council earlier this week after dismissing the Cabinet and prime minister. Reports indicate that the long-time ruler and his family have left the country for the UAE.

Tokayev assumed full control of the military and security forces after Nazarbayev was ousted. Additionally, he agreed to temporarily reinstate fuel price caps in order to placate the protesters, although it does not seem that they are going to be that easily placated.

Is the Unrest Really About Fuel Prices?

The answer is yes and no. According to Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, unrest in Kazakhstan, which won independence three decades ago, is deeply rooted.

As Haring tells NPR’s All Things Considered, “This is not a story about gas prices. This is a story about power, inequality, and the lack of political choice.” Inequality is a component of the fuel prices issue, explains Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili from the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Governance and Markets.

Despite the fact that much of Kazakhstan’s wealth is monopolized by the government’s elite, oil workers view the price hike as an insult.

What is Behind the Escalating Public Anger?

From the five Central Asian republics that achieved independence after the Soviet Union disintegrated, Kazakhstan is by far the largest and wealthiest. The country spans a territory the size of Western Europe and is surrounded by vast reserves of gas, uranium, oil, and precious metals.

Map of Kazakhstan and neighbours
Source: BBC

Despite Kazakhstan’s natural wealth, the country is facing financial hardship, and even its wealthiest citizens are struggling. The national average monthly wage is just under $600. Non-performing loans have precipitated a deep crisis in the banking system. There is widespread petty corruption in the rest of the region as well.

Also Read: The Looming Global Debt Crisis: Developing Nations at the Extreme Risk

Zhanaozen, a dusty western oil town, was the setting for the latest crisis. In the area, resentment has long festered regarding the region’s energy wealth not being fairly distributed. A total of 15 people were killed by police in 2011 when they were protesting against the dismissal of oil workers after a strike.

Those in the area whose cars are powered by liquified petroleum gas couldn’t hold out when prices doubled overnight Saturday. Almost immediately, residents of nearby cities joined in, and protests spread across the country within days.

What Happens Next in Kazakhstan?

Kazakhstan is exploring territory it has never explored before. Demonstrations in the country have occurred before: In 2016, after a contentious land law was passed. In 2019, after Tokayev’s reelection secured his hold on power. However, nothing like this has happened before.

Announcing reforms in an appeal to the public on Wednesday, Tokayev hinted at the possibility of political liberalization. As the day wore on, however, he made darker remarks that suggested a more repressive path ahead.

Although the street protests seem to lack focus, at least for now, it is difficult to predict how they will end. It is possible they could lead to deep transformation even if they fail to topple the government. However, it is unclear what that might entail.

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The Bombs Still Waiting Beneath Gaza’s Rubble

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A ceasefire can ultimately stop new bombs from falling, but it cannot make the weapons already buried beneath Gaza safe. Although it is a “broken ceasefire” that has been violated more than a hundred times by Israel, Palestinians still have hope. Whenever families return to their damaged homes, they will find more than broken concrete and twisted steel.

Israel said it carried out more than 40,000 airstrikes on Gaza by October 2024. Alarmingly, the UN Mine Action Service estimates that 5% to 10% of explosive munitions have failed to explode.

Gaza Has Become an Unmapped Minefield

Unexploded ordnance is extremely dangerous because it is hard to identify and may become less stable after impact. In Gaza, rather than lying in open air, numerous lethal weapons are buried inside collapsed apartment blocks, under roads, beside water systems, or beneath homes where displaced people are trying to live again.

A credible news agency, Reuters, documented a bomb more than a meter long on a rubbish heap in Gaza City. Moreover, a family in Nuseirat is unable to return because a device remained inside their home, and residents of Khan Younis are living above a suspected bomb buried beneath their building. UN teams have also found aircraft bombs, mortars, rockets, and improvised explosive devices on the surface, while warning that many more are likely to be deep under the rubble.

By October 2025, a UN-led database had recorded more than 53 deaths and hundreds of injuries from explosive remnants in Gaza. Aid organizations, such as UNRWA, believe the real total is higher because many incidents are never formally reported. Additionally, Humanity & Inclusion estimated that clearing surface contamination alone could take 20 to 30 years, while deeply buried weapons may remain a threat for generations.

Rubble Clearance Cannot Begin Blindly

As per the UN estimates, Gaza now contains an estimated 61 million tonnes of rubble. By April 2026, UNDP teams had removed about 287,000 tonnes, less than half of 1% of the total. The agency said the wider effort could take seven years or even more, and only if heavy machinery, fuel, and access are consistently available. Reconstruction needs have been placed at $71.4 billion over the coming decade.

These figures aptly show why unexploded weapons are inseparable from reconstruction. Before workers reopen a road, reach a water well, repair a hospital, or clear land for housing, specialists may need to survey the site. A bulldozer cannot safely enter simply because the fighting has stopped.

Near Khan Younis, a bulldozer struck a concealed explosive while clearing a road. The driver and a 15-year-old boy suffered severe burns and shrapnel wounds, and both lost sight in one eye.

The debris may also contain asbestos, contaminated dust, sewage, fuel, industrial chemicals, and human remains. Clearance is therefore a demining, environmental, and public-health operation, not merely a construction job.

Children and Returning Families Face the Greatest Risk

Children search damaged buildings for toys, clothing, wood, plastic, or scrap metal. A fuse, shell fragment, or small munition may look useful or harmless. So, as a precaution, warning posters can reduce some risk, but they cannot replace trained clearance teams.

Returning families face the same danger on a larger scale. Many enter homes without structural inspections, move debris by hand, and salvage whatever can be reused. Some extract steel bars from destroyed buildings to support tents or sell for income because construction materials remain scarce. That work brings innocent civilians into direct contact with debris that has not been systematically checked.

The threat will grow whenever more displaced people return to heavily damaged neighborhoods. Without large-scale clearance, Gaza risks inheriting the same decades-long danger seen in other countries where unexploded weapons continued killing civilians long after wars ended.

The Equipment Needed Has Been Restricted

As a professional practice, bomb disposal teams require detectors, armoured vehicles, protective clothing, firing cables, controlled explosives and specialised excavation equipment. But Israeli authorities rejected requests for more than 2,000 demining items between March and July 2024, including equipment needed for safe detonations and protected access. Aid groups said these restrictions and blockages prevented clearance work from beginning.

Gaza’s own capacity has also been reduced to almost nothing. Thirty-one members of the local police engineering division were killed, and another 22 were injured during the genocide. International teams need visas, security guarantees, and permission to bring equipment into the territory. Without strike records and technical information about the weapons used, specialists must work with incomplete maps.

Responsibility Cannot End With the Bombing

A UN-coordinated estimate placed the cost of clearing Gaza’s unexploded ordnance at about $500 million over ten years, assuming cooperation and unrestricted access. Later assessments suggested surface clearance may take even more than two or three decades.

That burden cannot be placed on innocent Palestinians alone. Israel holds information about its strikes and munitions. Governments that supplied weapons have technical expertise, records, and financial resources. On the other hand, donors discussing reconstruction must treat explosive clearance as a first requirement, not an optional project after roads and buildings are planned.

In a nutshell, Gaza cannot be rebuilt safely while bombs remain beneath homes, schools, hospitals and streets. The slow pace of genocide does not end the danger. Before families can return with confidence, the weapons still buried beneath the rubble must be mapped, removed, and destroyed.

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What Happens to Palestinian Refugees If UNRWA Finally Breaks?

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The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) was established to provide humanitarian support to the people of Palestine, especially in Gaza. However, this life-saving agency does not need to announce its collapse for Palestinian refugees to feel it. A clinic can shorten its critical hours, a school can lose teachers, and a family can suffer unimaginably due to the shortage of food, shelter, and life-saving medication.

On 30 June 2026, UN Secretary General António Guterres warned that this critical UN agency was approaching a “breaking point”. This is due to a funding gap of $100 million and restrictions by Israel. Due to this unfortunate happening, UNRWA had already reduced service hours by twenty percent. Moreover, they had cut local salaries and left 15% of international posts vacant. In 2025 alone, it received just $829 million against stated needs of $3.3 billion.

An Agency Created Because Displacement Was Never Resolved

UNRWA was established in 1949 after about 700,000 Palestinians were driven from or fled their homes during the Nakba. It was meant to provide much-needed humanitarian relief while the refugee question awaited a reliable solution. More than 75 years later, that solution has not arrived.

In fact, around 5.9 million Palestinians are registered with the agency across Gaza, the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. UNRWA employs about 30,000 Palestinians and provides education, primary healthcare, relief, and emergency assistance. It is not a small charity that can be replaced by redirecting a few aid trucks. It is a regional humanitarian public-service system built over generations.

Its long existence is sometimes used against it, as though the agency created the refugee crisis. In fact, UNRWA remains because the Palestinian statehood issue remains unresolved. Closing it would only remove services, while the original injustice would continue.

Gaza Would Feel the Collapse First

Especially in Gaza, UNRWA has operated schools, clinics, warehouses, and distribution systems for decades. Its local staff know the limited communities they serve. During the genocide, its buildings became shelters, and its employees continued working while displaced and grieving.

So, if the agency breaks down, Gaza would lose far more than just food distribution. Primary healthcare would shrink. Vaccination, maternal care, and treatment for chronic illness would be largely interrupted. Sanitation and shelter support would weaken. Other humanitarian organizations would be expected to absorb an enormous caseload without UNRWA’s staff, facilities or local network.

Moreover, education would suffer just as deeply. UN officials warned that more than 660,000 children in Gaza could lose access to schooling if UNRWA collapsed. After years of bombing, displacement, and trauma, removing the main institution capable of rebuilding education would deepen the destruction of an entire innocent generation.

The Crisis Would Spread Across the Region

UNRWA is often discussed as though it exists only in Gaza. Its collapse would also be felt in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the occupied West Bank.

When it comes to Lebanon, many Palestinian refugees face severe poverty and restrictions on employment. In Syria, years of internal and proxy wars have damaged camps and public services. On the other hand, in Jordan and the West Bank, UNRWA schools and clinics support large communities. Host governments would face extreme pressure to absorb hundreds of programs, yet most lack the money or capacity to do so.

Although international charities could take over isolated projects, they could not quickly reproduce a network operating across five territories. The likely result would be fragmented healthcare, overcrowded schools, lost jobs, and deeper instability.

A Financial Crisis Made Political

UNRWA’s funding problems cannot be separated from the campaign against the agency by Israel and its allies.

Israel accused several employees of involvement in the attacks of 7 October 2023. The UN investigated this matter as well. These allegations against individuals were used to attack an agency employing tens of thousands and serving millions. Several donors suspended funding; most later resumed it, but the financial damage remained.

To add fuel to the fire, Israel also passed legislation restricting UNRWA, barred official contact with it, and moved against its East Jerusalem presence. Unfortunately, in January 2026, Israeli bulldozers demolished buildings inside the agency’s East Jerusalem compound after the site had been seized. Resultantly, the UN condemned the demolition as a violation of international law.

Who Would Replace UNRWA?

Israel has notoriously said that other organizations can assume UNRWA’s work. However, what are the guarantees that the other organization wouldn’t be banned or completely obliterated in the name of revenge? No credible plan has shown how this could happen at the required scale.

When it comes to other humanitarian agencies, they have specialized mandates, but none combines UNRWA’s schools, clinics, registration systems, warehouses and Palestinian workforce. NGOs can provide emergency help, but they cannot instantly operate a regional education and healthcare system. Most importantly, the UN Security Council has called UNRWA the backbone of the humanitarian response in Gaza and warned against attempts to dismantle it.

If UNRWA disappeared, innocent civilians would suffer the most. Food, healthcare, schooling, shelter, and sanitation would still have to be provided. Ultimately, Palestinian families would bear the immediate consequences.

Closing UNRWA Would Not Close the Refugee Question

In a nutshell, UNRWA is not a substitute for Palestinian freedom, return, compensation, or statehood. It cannot negotiate a political settlement. Its schools and clinics manage the consequences of displacement rather than resolving its cause.

UNRWA may have been created as a temporary institution, but Palestinian exile was never temporary. If the agency finally breaks, the refugees will not vanish. Their needs will become more severe, the entire system more strained, and the region less stable.

The world would not have ended the Palestinian refugee crisis. It would simply have abandoned the people still living through it.

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Hormuz Gets Diplomacy While Gaza and Lebanon Keep Bleeding

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The latest US-Iran talks show how quickly the world can move when a crisis threatens oil, shipping, and regional markets. After the Strait of Hormuz became a flashpoint, Washington moved into negotiations. Although the attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran were unprovoked, the resulting ceasefire is a reflection of the enfeebled power of the United States and Israel.

However, one thing is evident: when the global economy feels pressure, urgency arrives. But that urgency is not being shown to Gaza and Lebanon. This is the central problem with the current regional diplomacy. The Strait of Hormuz is being treated as a global emergency, while Israel’s continued genocide in Gaza and violence in Lebanon is treated as a difficult-to-manage side issue.

Why Hormuz Became the Priority

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes. Around one-fifth of global oil and natural gas normally passes through this narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. When the US-Israel escalation with Iran raised the risk of disruption, the concern was immediate because any closure or attack near Hormuz could affect energy prices, insurance costs, shipping schedules, and the wider global economy.

Following a ceasefire announcement, the US indicated it would waive sanctions on Iran for 60 days after the first talks under a new peace framework. The talks, held in Switzerland and mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, were described as part of a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days. Moreover, they included a communications mechanism to help ensure the safe passage of commercial ships through Hormuz.

This does not simply mean the crisis is over. Iran and the US still disagree over a lot of issues, like nuclear inspections and the details of the deal. Gulf states remain worried about Iranian power, Israeli escalation, and the possibility of another breakdown. But the speed of the diplomatic response tells its own story. Hormuz became urgent because Hormuz affects global trade.

The Problem Is Not Diplomacy but Selective Diplomacy

Keeping Hormuz open matters due to the fact that millions of people could feel the economic shock of a major disruption. The problem is not that diplomats are trying to calm the waterway. The problem is that the same level of pressure is not applied when Israel keeps killing innocent Palestinians and Lebanese civilians.

This is where US diplomacy becomes morally exposed. Washington can move quickly when shipping lanes, oil prices, and Gulf allies are at risk. Yet when Gaza’s children are killed after a ceasefire, or when Lebanese families remain displaced from destroyed villages, the language becomes cautious, delayed, and full of exceptions for Israel.

Lebanon Shows the Limits of the Deal

Lebanon is supposed to be one of the places where regional de-escalation becomes visible. Although the interim US-Iran agreement called for ending hostilities, including in Lebanon, it is not being realized completely. Israel, however, has declared that it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon unless its unrealistic conditions are met.

This is why the Lebanon file remains so fragile. Despite withdrawing from Lebanon and providing the innocent people a sigh of relief, Israel is pushing forward. Israel has established what it calls a buffer zone about 10 km inside Lebanon, forcing local civilians from their homes and carrying out raids and demolitions in villages.

When it comes to the human cost, more than 1.2 million people were displaced during the fighting, about a fifth of Lebanon’s population. Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research indicated that more than 90,000 housing units were damaged or destroyed between March 2 and June 12. Other credible reports also highlighted that tens of thousands remain displaced because their homes are gone or their towns remain under Israeli military occupation.

Gaza Remains the Deepest Failure

Since the October 2025 ceasefire, Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,027 Palestinians and injured 3,280 others. Gaza’s Health Ministry highlighted that the total number of Palestinians killed since October 2023 has exceeded 73,041, with 173,402 wounded. These numbers do not describe a genocide moving toward peace. They describe a population still being punished while the world discusses arrangements elsewhere.

Gaza should have been discussed in the recent peace talks, too, but the world is moving towards a moral crisis. The destruction of Gaza, the blockade on aid, the brutal killing of innocent children, and the forced displacement of families are the reasons anger across the Muslim world remains so deep.

Israel Keeps Undermining Regional Peace

Any honest discussion of regional de-escalation must confront Israel’s role. The US wants Iran to lower tensions, the Gulf states want shipping security, and mediators want the fighting to stop. Yet Israel continues to act with carte blanche in Gaza and Lebanon.

There is a wide contradiction between the world’s policies. Israel is not treated as a spoiler in the same way as others are. Its attacks are framed as security needs, while Palestinian and Lebanese suffering is framed as an unfortunate fallout. This double standard is one reason ceasefire efforts keep failing in practice.

If Israel can continue bombing Gaza, occupy parts of southern Lebanon, and delay withdrawal without serious consequences, then regional calm remains fragile. It may hold for oil markets, but it will not hold for the people living under attack.

Ultimately, peace cannot be built by protecting tankers while ignoring tents, hospitals, and destroyed villages. A regional deal that treats shipping as urgent but civilian blood as negotiable is not peace. It is selective stability, built for markets before innocent people.

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