As the Russian military continues to squeeze Ukrain from all three sides, the USA and its NATO allies are working towards de-escalating traction of the increasingly volatile situation.
What is happening on the ground? What is driving the escalation? And what’s next?
What is Happening on the Ground?
Almost 100,000 Russian troops are positioned along Russia’s border with Ukraine, suggesting a full-scale invasion could take place this winter.
Ukraine’s intelligence agencies report that Russia has troops, tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles along its southern, eastern, and northern borders.
A number of Russian forces are gathered near the Donbas region in the east of Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting for the last few years.
Russian officials defended their actions, saying they are entitled to move their forces around their own territory. However, the unusual movements of large numbers of troops and weapons indicate that Russia intends to invade – or want to convince Ukraine and its allies that a Russian invasion is imminent.
Ukraine annexed Crimea’s southern peninsula in April 2014 and backed separatists that captured large swaths of eastern Ukraine after its pro-Russian president was overthrown. More than 14,000 people died in the conflict between the rebels and the Ukrainian military.
Russia-Ukraine Invasion : The Demands
Russia
Russian officials say they want to prevent NATO from expanding into Ukraine. However, that’s not all they want.
In response to Russia’s concern about NATO expanding eastward, the Kremlin has demanded a guarantee that the alliance won’t grow into its sphere of influence.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also called upon Western allies to cease rotating troops through several nations in Eastern Europe and for the U.S. to remove its nuclear weapons from Europe.
Putin has criticized the West for taking an “aggressive” stance “on our doorstep.”
By giving in to these demands, a Cold War power division would be restored between Europe and Russia, which would further strengthen and expand its dominion.
In contrast, NATO officials representing 30 nations in Europe and North America have rebuffed Putin’s demands. But, in an attempt to end the stalemate, Russia is now threatening military action.
Ukraine
A longstanding and complex relationship exists between Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization due to its unique cultural and political ties to both the West and Russia.
Though, Ukrainian governments in the past have had closer ties to Russia. Taking office in 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has tried to strengthen ties with the West. Zelensky has actively lobbied NATO to expedite the process of Ukraine’s membership.
A NATO membership could greatly improve the country’s security. Post becoming a member, if Ukraine were attacked, each of NATO’s 30 members would be obligated to defend it.
Russia-Ukraine Invasions: The Diplomatic Support
Since Ukraine is outside NATO and is not entitled to the alliance’s security guarantees, the E.U. and the U.S. have made it clear that they are unlikely to intervene directly militarily in the event of a Russian attack.
Many have instead sent military aid to Ukraine and threatened to impose severe new sanctions on Russia if the escalation further and Russia attacks.
Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said in a meeting, Moscow would pay the price for moving on to Ukraine, but that diplomacy was the only option.
Cyberattacks: The digital warfare
The most likely scenario, according to Professor Dibb, a former deputy secretary of the Department of Defence, is that Russia will mount more crippling cyberattacks.
Ukraine was just recently targeted by a cyberattack that defaced its government websites.
The Ukrainian government blamed Russia for the attack.
He explained that a cyberattack could cut off electricity and energy supplies during the winter and allow Russia to spread propaganda and disinformation to Ukraine’s 8.3 million Russians involved in insurgency operations.
According to Alexey Muraviev, national security and strategic expert at Curtin University, Russia’s priority isn’t to occupy Ukraine but to ensure its agreements are met to stop NATO from expanding northward.
The West is with Ukraine
As for the U.S. plans to send combat troops, it has made it clear that it is committed to helping Ukraine defend its “sovereign territory.”
Sanctions and military assistance, such as advisers and weapons, appear to be the main tools in the West’s arsenal. In the event of an attack on Ukraine, President Biden has threatened Russia’s leader with “never-before-seen measures.” What would those measures be?
In the long run, disconnecting Russia’s banking system from Swift would be the greatest economic loss. Latvia has said that would be a strong signal to Moscow, which has historically been viewed as a last resort.
In addition to the gas pipeline project, preventing the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Germany, is another key threat. Germany’s energy regulator is currently debating whether to approve the pipeline.
Russian banks could also be restricted from converting roubles into foreign currency, or steps could be taken to target the RDIF sovereign wealth fund.
“Each further aggressive act will have a high price for Russia, economically, strategically, politically.”
What began with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb 28, 2026, quickly spread across the region, linking Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon into a single, expanding, and unwanted conflict.
This is a series of the most volatile events of contemporary times. While a temporary ceasefire with Iran has opened the door for talks, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Gaza remains under genocidal devastation, while Lebanon is under heavy bombardment.
Resultantly, regional tensions are at their highest in years. However, this is not something happening in isolation but a large-scale genocide being unfolded across multiple fronts.
Gaza: The Genocide That Never Stopped
Even as attention shifted toward Iran, Gaza never saw even a bit of relief. More than 2 million Palestinians remain trapped, with the majority displaced internally. Entire neighborhoods have been flattened, and basic services, like water, electricity, and healthcare, have vanished.
Despite diplomatic developments elsewhere, Israeli strikes in Gaza have continued, reinforcing a central reality. The genocide in Gaza did not pause; rather, it became the foundation for a wider assault.
So, Gaza is not separate from the current regional crisis. It is where it began and where it continues.
The Iran Strikes That Changed the Region
On February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces carried out coordinated and unprovoked airstrikes targeting Iran. These strikes marked a significant shift from indirect confrontation to direct engagement. Even a primary school for girls was hit by the Israeli and US-led airstrikes in Iran, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of innocent lives.
In response to Israel’s act of aggressionand the United States’ Operation Epic Fury, Iran launched Operation True Promise IV. It also launched ballistic missiles and drones to retaliate.
After putting the entire region into flames, Israel declared a state of emergency, while regional airspace disruptions and security alerts spread across neighboring countries.
This heavy exchange transformed the conflict. What had been contained within Gaza now extended into a broader regional confrontation involving a major state actor.
Lebanon: The Expansion No One Could Ignore
If Gaza was the starting point and Iran the escalation, Lebanon became the clearest sign of expansion. So, even after a ceasefire announcement by the US, Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon resulted in:
Over 250 to 300 people killed within 24 to 48 hours
More than 1,000 injured
Dozens of strikes hit densely populated urban areas, including Beirut
These were among the deadliest attacks on Lebanon in decades. Crucially, these strikes continued despite the ceasefire framework announcement with Iran. Israeli leadership made it clear that they are not going to halt their heinous operations in Lebanon despite the long-awaited peace talks.
A Ceasefire That Did Not Bring Calm
The ceasefire announcement between the United States and Iran was presented as a step toward de-escalation. It opened the door for talks in Islamabad, raising hopes of stabilizing the situation.
However, events on the ground contradicted those expectations. Some of these events include:
Lebanon continued to face severe and unprovoked bombardment
Gaza remained under genocidal attacks
Regional military readiness stayed elevated
This created a fragile and uncertain environment in which diplomacy and escalation coexisted. A temporary ceasefire on paper did not translate into peace across the region.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Risk Point
Beyond the immediate Middle Eastern battle zones, the conflict has placed critical global infrastructure at risk.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, has become a central pressure point. Iran has signaled its ability to restrict or disrupt traffic through the strait if escalation continues.
This is to pressurize the US and Israel to think about what they are doing at least twice. So, even the possibility of disruption has:
Increased volatility in global oil markets
Triggered economic concerns far beyond the Middle East
This underscores a key reality that the conflict is not confined to borders, but its consequences are global.
A Connected Battlefield and The Muslim World
What is happening across Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon is not coincidental but a reflection of a wider ideology. This ideology has roots in Islamophobia, too, but the primary driver here is Israel, supported by the United States.
Each front reflects a different dimension of the same conflict:
Gaza: Genocide, humanitarian devastation, and mass displacement
Iran: Unprovoked and Imposed War
Lebanon: Expansion of active military operations by Israel
Although some countries are trying to help de-escalate the situation, such as Turkiye, Qatar, Pakistan, and Egypt, most have complex responses.
Especially the US military bases in Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar are being attacked by Iran as a counter-strike.
Rather than observing these events in isolation, using a broader lens makes everything clear.
The future scenario could be a temporary stabilization as Iran brought their 10 points, while the U.S. brought 15 points for the ceasefire to be agreed.
While the efforts to make peace are underway, Israel is still involved in one of the deadliest assaults on Lebanon. The Muslim World should unite at this difficult time, not only for regional stability but also for global peace and prosperity.
Gaza’s genocide is often described and portrayed through images of collapsed buildings and rising death tolls. But a deeper loss is silently unfolding amidst the genocide – one that cannot be rebuilt with cement or aid.
Gaza is losing its people – not only through death, but also through forced displacement, unemployment, blocked movement, and the collapse of education, as well as professional life.
Recent figures show how severe this shift has become. Gaza’s unemployment rate has surged to around 80%. Moreover, the overall economy of the Strip has shrunk by nearly 87%, reducing total output to just $362 million. When it comes to the GDP per capita, it has fallen to about $161, wiping out over two decades of development.
Even the people in Gaza are surviving from day to day just to live. At the same time, nearly 70% of Gaza’s population is under the age of 30. So, it is evident that the crisis is not abstract, but all of this is happening to the generation that should be carrying Gaza forward.
From Graduates to Survival
Before the genocide, young Palestinians invested heavily in education. Degrees in engineering, medicine, and business were seen as the only path out of hardship.
However, today, that pathway has completely collapsed. In this context, the story of Mahmoud Shamiya is documented as an example, a university graduate who now spends his days collecting firewood and fetching water in a displacement camp. His words capture the shift clearly: young people have become “aimless, jobless, and hopeless.”
So, this is not a temporary setback, but an act of structural genocide. When an economy collapses and movement is extremely restricted, education loses its purpose. Degrees no longer lead to jobs, skills cannot be used, and ambition is replaced by survival.
Education Has Been Torn Apart
The damage to Gaza’s education system is systemic. According to recent credible assessments:
Around 658,000 to 660,000 students have lost access to regular education
Between 87% and 97% of school buildings have been completely obliterated
Immediate damage to the education sector is estimated at $870 million, rising to $3.8 billion over five years
So, in this extremely volatile situation, education has become impossible. Even emergency education funding has faded out. Out of nearly $198 million required, only about 3.3% is estimated to be secured.
This is a complete deliberate collapse of the education sector of Palestinians by Israel. Students are not simply missing classes — they are losing entire academic years, and in fact, losing most precious years of their lives.
Rafah Is Controlling Who Gets a Future
Yet, for many young Palestinians, the only remaining path forward lies outside Gaza. This is only possible through scholarships, medical placements, or training opportunities abroad.
But that path runs through Rafah, and it is not open. There are hundreds of cases of capable students waiting for the only border to get reopened. For instance, there is a case of Mona Al-Mashharawi. She is a student who secured admission in a university in Algeria, but due to Israel’s restrictions and Rafah closure, she has been trapped for three years. She was meant to leave in November 2023.
There is a complete timeline of the Rafah border:
Rafah crossing was seized by Israel in May 2024
It reopened only partially in 2026, allowing a limited number of people on foot, just for health emergency cases
Movement remains extremely restricted, unpredictable, and insufficient for normal life
Who will be responsible for these innocent dreams and the futures of thousands of young people? Who can bring their most precious years back? It’s part of a broader genocide strategy of Israel to eliminate all the footprints of the Palestinian generations.
The Private Sector Has Been Crushed
Before the genocide, Gaza’s private sector accounted for around 52% of employment. It provided livelihoods through small businesses, services, and local industries.
However, today, that system has completely collapsed. Estimates indicate some harsh realities:
Up to 90% of economic sectors have been wiped out
Total economic losses are approaching $70 billion
The Loss of Skilled Professionals
The most critical loss is not visible in rubble, but it is the loss of people who make recovery possible.
It is evident that doctors cannot work without hospitals. Engineers cannot build without infrastructure, and teachers cannot teach without schools.
Reports now confirm the displacement of skilled workers during the genocide, adding another layer to the crisis. Those who left took with them education, experience, and institutional knowledge.
Those who remain often cannot function in their professions, and as a result, there is a vacuum.
Even if somehow rebuilding begins tomorrow, the people needed to lead that process are either gone, displaced, or unable to work psychologically or physically.
A Generation Forced Into Survival Mode
Gaza’s youth should have been its greatest strength, but now, they are the most affected group of the heinous genocide.
With absolutely no jobs, no stable education, restricted movement, and destroyed infrastructure, young people are no longer planning futures. They are managing survival day after day.
The long-term effects are clear:
Delayed or lost careers
Reduced economic recovery
Severe psychological trauma
Weakened social systems
When an entire generation is pushed into survival mode, the damage does not end with the genocide.
As of now, more than 80% to 90% of Gaza’s population depends entirely on humanitarian aid. The aid is itself extremely restricted, and resultantly making survival extremely challenging.
Even the water supply has been reduced to just around 10% of the overall daily requirement in Gaza.
After all this, one fact is certain: the capacity and the future of Gaza are being eroded in an unprecedented way by Israel and its allies. Unless the world realizes the quest for survival in Gaza, nothing is going to change!
A traditional frontline in modern warfare is typically a trench or a high military hotspot, but in Gaza, the concept of the frontline has moved towards unimaginable realities. The devastation in Gaza has been widely measured in destroyed homes, shattered hospitals, and tens of thousands of lives lost.
However, there is another dimension in the Gaza genocide that is being unfolded quietly. It is a strike at the very foundation of a people’s future. Israel is systematically moving the frontline of this genocide towards delivery rooms and neonatal wards.
All across Gaza, the conditions required for pregnancy, childbirth, and infant survival have been systematically dismantled. From the complete destruction of fertility clinics to the collapse of maternity care, the impact is no longer limited to the present. It ultimately extends directly into the future.
The Fertility Clinic That Lost Thousands of Embryos
One of the most striking examples of this collapse came with the destruction of Gaza’s largest fertility center. The Al Basma IVF Centre, a facility that offered hope to families struggling with infertility, was badly hit during the genocide. According to credible reports, around 4,000 embryos stored at the clinic were destroyed.
Each embryo represented a future — a family waiting, a life planned, a possibility that no longer exists. The loss of the clinic meant more than the destruction of a building. It erased years of medical effort and removed one of the few pathways to parenthood for many couples in Gaza.
Israel deliberately targeted the maternal health infrastructure of Gaza, making it an unprecedented act in world history. The brutality and hate during the genocide are already evident, as hundreds of thousands of people were martyred.
Births Falling at an Unprecedented Rate
The impact of genocide on reproduction is now visible in Gaza’s birth statistics. Data shows that births in Gaza dropped by 41% in the first half of 2025 compared with 2022.
However, normal demographic shifts do not explain such a sharp decline. It reflects a reality where:
Families are displaced repeatedly
Healthcare services are severely limited
Food shortages and stress affect pregnancy
Safety itself is uncertain
When births fall at this scale, it signals more than disruption. It indicates that the conditions necessary for sustaining life are no longer intact.
Pregnancy Under Conditions of Survival
For thousands of women in Gaza, pregnancy has become a daily struggle for survival. Estimates indicate that more than 150,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women have been living under conditions of displacement, food insecurity, and limited medical care. Moreover, many of them lack access to basic prenatal services.
Reports from human rights organisations describe:
Malnutrition during pregnancy
Lack of clean water
Extremely limited access to doctors and medicine
These effects are not secondary but primary as they directly influence maternal health, fetal development, and survival outcomes.
Investigations by Human Rights Watch documented numerous scenes where multiple newborns were forced to share a single incubator. There is an entire strategy of sterilization rooted in colonial history.
Colonizers used forced sterilization as a strategy against the innocent wombs. The Genocide Convention of 1948 explicitly defines measures to stop the birthrate as an act of genocide.
Childbirth Amidst the Genocide
The collapse of Gaza’s healthcare system has transformed childbirth itself. Al-Shifa Hospital and others that once handled routine deliveries are now operating under extreme pressure, or have been damaged or destroyed. Supplies are scarce, electricity is unreliable, and medical staff are overwhelmed.
This is a stark indicator of how far conditions have deteriorated. Childbirth, which requires stability, hygiene, and skilled care, is now taking place in environments where none of those can be found at all.
A Systematic Genocide of a Generation
Numerous international humanitarian organizations, such as Amnesty International, stated that women in Gaza are being denied the basic conditions necessary for life, including reproductive health services.
The continuity of an entire generation of Palestinians is at stake due to these heinous genocidal acts. Reproductive health is not only a medical issue, but it is deeply tied to population stability, family structure, and long-term social continuity.
The destruction of reproductive systems, whether through infrastructure, access, or conditions, has lasting consequences. The intentions of Israel and its allies, including the United States, are absolutely visible. They want to wipe out the word “Palestine” from the face of the earth through every single effort.
Despite the scale of this devastation, the horror remains largely underreported by the Western Media. This silence is actually like taking part in the genocide.
In a nutshell, the ability to sustain life has been severely compromised. Israel has ultimately turned the womb into a battlefield. Specifically in Gaza, the consequences of genocide are no longer confined to the present. They largely extend into the possibility of life itself!