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The Ethiopian Dam: Is the War on the Doors after the Start of the Second Filling Process?

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Many options were discussed by Egypt and Sudan in a response to Ethiopia’s decision to start the second filling of the Ennahda dam without reaching an agreement with the two downstream states.

While some commentators discussed the possibility of Egypt launching a military strike on the dam, others blamed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi for his solo signing the declaration of Principles agreement with Ethiopia.

Egypt is stepping up its diplomatic efforts ahead of a UN Security Council meeting on Thursday 8 July to discuss the implications of the Ethiopian resolution for Egypt and Sudan.

Difficult decisions

Ethiopia’s management of the crisis means dragging Egypt into a war it does not want

What is clear, unfortunately, is that we are closer to war because of the Ethiopian position than ever before, especially after the Ethiopian Ministry of irrigation notified its Egyptian counterpart of Ethiopia’s second filling of the dam, which means pushing Egypt and Sudan to make difficult decisions.

Who’s in charge?

In contrast, some Arab commentators held Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi responsible for reaching this stage of the recent Ethiopian decision.

While Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was preoccupied with military exercises on the Egyptian-Libyan border and the designation of Sirte and Jufra as a red line, the Ethiopian leadership was continuing to complete the construction of the dam and build a series of military fortifications around it in

However, the political failure of the two countries (Egypt and Sudan) does not cancel the rights of the citizens of Egypt and Sudan to the waters of the Nile or justify the arrogance of Ethiopia.

Is there a role for Israel in the dam crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia?

Arab and Egyptian newspapers discussed the statements of some writers and parliamentarians in Egypt about Israel’s role in the Renaissance Dam crisis.

The Renaissance Dam crisis is a political crisis aimed at delivering the Nile River water to the Hebrew state.

Deputy of Parliament Daoud also pointed out that Israel is using Ethiopia to pressure Egypt down to Greater Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates.

Mustafa al-Feki, a former Egyptian diplomat and head of the Bibliotheca Alexandrina, also stated that Israel has an influence on the Ennahda dam file because it dreams of becoming one of the countries of the Nile River estuary since the time of the late President Mohamed Anwar Sadat.

A number of writers supported statements suggesting that Ethiopia was complicit in achieving Israel’s goals.

UN Security Council responds to Egypt and Ethiopia regarding the Renaissance Dam

Egypt has called on the Security Council to consider the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis immediately and urgently, as this crisis could pose a threat to international peace.

Ethiopia plans to implement the second phase of filling its reservoir this summer without agreement with Sudan and Egypt.

For its part, Ethiopia responded to Egypt’s request saying that

“Ethiopia has the right to fill the Renaissance Dam is in line with the principles of rational use of Nile water and the declaration of Principles signed by the presidents of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt in 2015”.

The president of the Security Council, Nicolas de Rivière, said that the council does not have much to do in the crisis of the Renaissance Dam between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

We only have to bring the parties together to voice their concerns, and then encourage them to return to negotiations to reach a solution,” said De rafiere, president of the council.

What are the scenarios Egypt considering of to solve the crisis?

The military option

military cooperation is happening with a number of African states surrounding Ethiopia, in recent months. That indicates that there is a military movement going against the dam being prepared.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi recently visited Djibouti, the first Egyptian president to do so.

Djibouti is the fifth country neighboring Ethiopia-after Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, and Kenya, with which Egypt has strengthened its military cooperation in the past three months.

Egypt conducted several joint military exercises with Sudan, the most recent of which was called protectors of the Nile at the end of May.

Does that pave the way for an upcoming military move?!

Withdrawal from the declaration of principles

Egypt has the option of withdrawing or threatening to withdraw from the declaration of Principles agreement on the Ennahda dam, signed between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia in Khartoum in March 2015.

This could be an important step to delegitimize the dam. It won’t be enough on its own, but it may affect other measures.

Continuing negotiations

Egypt and Sudan will likely continue on the path of negotiations.

According to the Ethiopian announcement to reduce the height of the middle passage of the dam body to 573 meters. This will only store about 4 billion m3 of water during the flood season, instead of 13.5 billion

These 4 Billion may be brought by flooding without affecting Egypt’s share, and Lake Nasser behind the High Dam is full of water, so the second filling phase of the Nahda dam is likely not to harm Egypt’s share of water.

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Hormuz Gets Diplomacy While Gaza and Lebanon Keep Bleeding

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The latest US-Iran talks show how quickly the world can move when a crisis threatens oil, shipping, and regional markets. After the Strait of Hormuz became a flashpoint, Washington moved into negotiations. Although the attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran were unprovoked, the resulting ceasefire is a reflection of the enfeebled power of the United States and Israel.

However, one thing is evident: when the global economy feels pressure, urgency arrives. But that urgency is not being shown to Gaza and Lebanon. This is the central problem with the current regional diplomacy. The Strait of Hormuz is being treated as a global emergency, while Israel’s continued genocide in Gaza and violence in Lebanon is treated as a difficult-to-manage side issue.

Why Hormuz Became the Priority

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes. Around one-fifth of global oil and natural gas normally passes through this narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. When the US-Israel escalation with Iran raised the risk of disruption, the concern was immediate because any closure or attack near Hormuz could affect energy prices, insurance costs, shipping schedules, and the wider global economy.

Following a ceasefire announcement, the US indicated it would waive sanctions on Iran for 60 days after the first talks under a new peace framework. The talks, held in Switzerland and mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, were described as part of a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days. Moreover, they included a communications mechanism to help ensure the safe passage of commercial ships through Hormuz.

This does not simply mean the crisis is over. Iran and the US still disagree over a lot of issues, like nuclear inspections and the details of the deal. Gulf states remain worried about Iranian power, Israeli escalation, and the possibility of another breakdown. But the speed of the diplomatic response tells its own story. Hormuz became urgent because Hormuz affects global trade.

The Problem Is Not Diplomacy but Selective Diplomacy

Keeping Hormuz open matters due to the fact that millions of people could feel the economic shock of a major disruption. The problem is not that diplomats are trying to calm the waterway. The problem is that the same level of pressure is not applied when Israel keeps killing innocent Palestinians and Lebanese civilians.

This is where US diplomacy becomes morally exposed. Washington can move quickly when shipping lanes, oil prices, and Gulf allies are at risk. Yet when Gaza’s children are killed after a ceasefire, or when Lebanese families remain displaced from destroyed villages, the language becomes cautious, delayed, and full of exceptions for Israel.

Lebanon Shows the Limits of the Deal

Lebanon is supposed to be one of the places where regional de-escalation becomes visible. Although the interim US-Iran agreement called for ending hostilities, including in Lebanon, it is not being realized completely. Israel, however, has declared that it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon unless its unrealistic conditions are met.

This is why the Lebanon file remains so fragile. Despite withdrawing from Lebanon and providing the innocent people a sigh of relief, Israel is pushing forward. Israel has established what it calls a buffer zone about 10 km inside Lebanon, forcing local civilians from their homes and carrying out raids and demolitions in villages.

When it comes to the human cost, more than 1.2 million people were displaced during the fighting, about a fifth of Lebanon’s population. Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research indicated that more than 90,000 housing units were damaged or destroyed between March 2 and June 12. Other credible reports also highlighted that tens of thousands remain displaced because their homes are gone or their towns remain under Israeli military occupation.

Gaza Remains the Deepest Failure

Since the October 2025 ceasefire, Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,027 Palestinians and injured 3,280 others. Gaza’s Health Ministry highlighted that the total number of Palestinians killed since October 2023 has exceeded 73,041, with 173,402 wounded. These numbers do not describe a genocide moving toward peace. They describe a population still being punished while the world discusses arrangements elsewhere.

Gaza should have been discussed in the recent peace talks, too, but the world is moving towards a moral crisis. The destruction of Gaza, the blockade on aid, the brutal killing of innocent children, and the forced displacement of families are the reasons anger across the Muslim world remains so deep.

Israel Keeps Undermining Regional Peace

Any honest discussion of regional de-escalation must confront Israel’s role. The US wants Iran to lower tensions, the Gulf states want shipping security, and mediators want the fighting to stop. Yet Israel continues to act with carte blanche in Gaza and Lebanon.

There is a wide contradiction between the world’s policies. Israel is not treated as a spoiler in the same way as others are. Its attacks are framed as security needs, while Palestinian and Lebanese suffering is framed as an unfortunate fallout. This double standard is one reason ceasefire efforts keep failing in practice.

If Israel can continue bombing Gaza, occupy parts of southern Lebanon, and delay withdrawal without serious consequences, then regional calm remains fragile. It may hold for oil markets, but it will not hold for the people living under attack.

Ultimately, peace cannot be built by protecting tankers while ignoring tents, hospitals, and destroyed villages. A regional deal that treats shipping as urgent but civilian blood as negotiable is not peace. It is selective stability, built for markets before innocent people.

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UN Report Exposes Israel’s Genocide Through Targeting of Gaza’s Children

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The latest UN inquiry on Gaza’s children has changed the way this genocide must be discussed. It is no longer enough to say that children have died in large numbers, as if their deaths were only a tragic side of military operations. The UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry evidently described that Israeli authorities and the ISF have deliberately targeted Palestinian children. These actions are not limited to crimes against humanity but are a deliberate genocide.

The reason why this new finding matters is that it places the innocent children of Gaza at the centre of genocide. Unfortunately, Gaza’s children have been brutally killed by airstrikes, drones, and direct sniper fire. They have been wounded in shelters, deprived of food and medicine, pushed into disease, and left with trauma that no child should carry. Moreover, the report also extends beyond Gaza. It documented serious violations against Palestinian children in the occupied West Bank, including detention, settler violence, and mistreatment.

The Scale of Child Deaths in Gaza

Between October 7, 2023, and October 7, 2025, for two years, at least 20,179 Palestinian children were killed in Gaza. These are the official figures cited in reporting on the UN inquiry. Shockingly, children made up more than 30 percent of those killed.

On the other hand, UNICEF has also estimated that more than 50,000 children have been brutally killed or wounded since Israel’s genocide in Gaza began. These numbers show how deeply the violence has entered Palestinian family life. Especially in Gaza, almost every school, street, tent camp, and hospital corridor carries the memory of a child who was killed, injured, orphaned, or displaced.

Additionally, the UN Commission also noted Israel’s use of high-payload munitions and wide-area weapons in densely populated areas. Gaza is already a trapped and crowded strip of land where families have repeatedly been forced from one area to another. Ultimately, when heavy weapons are used in such places, children are placed directly inside or rather being hidden from genocidal risk.

Why the Word “Targeting” Matters

The most serious part of the UN report is not only the death toll. In fact, it is the finding that “Palestinian children were deliberately targeted”. That word changes the meaning of the evidence.

In this context, the commission examined cases involving children killed by quadcopter drones and sniper fire, including incidents where medical evidence suggested precise shooting. The inquiry also criticised the way Israeli forces described some killed children as “suspects,” a label that can turn even childhood into a security accusation.

This is one of the most dangerous features of Israel’s assault on Gaza. When a Palestinian child can be treated as a threat, the normal rules of humanity are ultimately turned upside down. A child searching for food, standing near a shelter, moving with family, or living in a crowded neighbourhood becomes vulnerable not only to bombs, but to a military logic that sees Palestinian life itself as suspicious.

The Ceasefire Did Not Save Gaza’s Children

The October 2025 ceasefire was supposed to reduce the killing and open a path toward stability. Yet Palestinian children have continued to die.

Gaza’s Health Ministry says more than 1,027 people have been killed since the ceasefire, including 258 children. One recent case was 12-year-old Ahmed Mohsen al-Raqab, martyred by an Israeli drone strike in al-Mawasi, the southern Gaza area where displaced families had taken shelter after being forced from other parts of the enclave.

This is why the word “ceasefire” has become painful and unrealistic for Palestinians. A ceasefire that does not protect children in displacement camps cannot be treated as peace. It becomes another political arrangement that looks stronger in statements than it does on the ground.

The Attack on Birth, Health and Childhood

The UN inquiry also looked at the conditions that allow children to be born, treated, and kept alive in Gaza. It said attacks on maternity and neonatal services endangered newborn survival and harmed Palestinians’ reproductive future. It also pointed to rising miscarriages, birth defects, and widespread psychological harm, including trauma among children.

This part of the report is an eye-opener. Genocide is not only carried out through direct killing. It is also being carried out by destroying the systems that sustain life.

A newborn in Gaza needs a safe delivery room, electricity, medicine, clean water, warmth, and trained medical staff. While a wounded child needs surgery, antibiotics, and a place to recover. A sick child needs nutrition and vaccines. When hospitals are attacked, supplies are blocked, and families are displaced again and again, childhood becomes a struggle for basic survival.

The West Bank Is Part of the Pattern

The inquiry also documented violations against Palestinian children in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem. It reported settler violence, arrests, detention, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, forced stripping, beatings, and food deprivation.

The methods are not identical to Gaza, but the impact is deeply interconnected. In Gaza, children are deliberately bombed, starved, and displaced. While in the West Bank, they are detained, intimidated, attacked by settlers, and pushed through a system that treats Palestinian childhood as a threat to be controlled.

Accountability Cannot Remain a Statement

The UN report should not become another document that governments mention briefly and then ignore. Its findings matter for the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, and every state that continues to arm, fund, or politically shield Israel.

Accountability must mean protection for children, open aid routes, medical evacuation, protection for hospitals and schools, and consequences for those responsible for attacks on innocent civilians. It must also mean ending the habit of treating Palestinian deaths as unfortunate but acceptable.

In a nutshell, children still dying after a ceasefire is not a misunderstanding but a deliberate act of genocide to wipe out the future of Gaza.

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Where Is Gaza’s International Stabilization Force and What Happened to the Ceasefire

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When Gaza’s ceasefire was announced, it was presented as more than a triumph. As a result, it was supposed to usher in a new phase of peace, prosperity, and stability. However, nothing like that happened. The Board of Peace and the International Stabilization Force remained unmaterialized ideas. Even months later, those promises look thin on the ground.

A Ceasefire That Still Leaves People Dead

What about a ceasefire that remains unable to stop brutality and killings? A ceasefire means safer movement, sufficient aid, and complete elimination of fear. Unfortunately, the people of Gaza haven’t seen that even after the announcement of a so-called “20-point plan” and the “ceasefire”.

Recently, Israeli strikes killed three Palestinians on June 11 while Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey were trying to advance the fragile truce. Days earlier, another Israeli airstrike on a large tent encampment in Gaza City killed at least seven innocent Palestinians, including two women, and injured 15 others, some of them children.

Moreover, more than 950 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire began. These numbers show why the word “ceasefire” sounds hollow to many families. A truce that cannot stop repeated deaths is not functioning as protection.

The Force That Has Not Protected Gaza

The International Stabilization Force was supposed to be a central part of Gaza’s next phase. The ceasefire plan, later tied to a UN mandate, imagined an international force that could support security, help stabilize the territory, assist transitional arrangements, and give the ceasefire practical weight.

Unfortunately, the force has not become a meaningful presence yet.

Numerous credible reports state that plans for the Gaza International Stabilization Force were in question because troop pledges had stalled. Countries expected to contribute had not made the commitments needed to turn a political idea into an operational force.

This delay matters a lot as Gaza now needs a mechanism that can protect displacement sites, secure aid routes, support safe movement, and help prevent violations. Without that, the stabilization force becomes another promise Palestinians hear about but do not feel.

Why Governments Are Hesitating

The hesitation is partly political and partly practical. Sending troops into Gaza would mean entering one of the most obliterated and contested places in the world. Foreign soldiers could be caught between Israel, armed factions, displaced civilians, and a population deeply suspicious of outside arrangements.

There are also unresolved questions about the mandate. Would the force protect civilians from all attacks, or mainly focus on disarmament? Would it monitor Israeli actions as well as Palestinian armed groups? Would Palestinians have a real voice in how it operates?

A force without legitimacy could fail quickly. But delay also has a huge cost. While governments hesitate, civilians live without a credible protection system against the genocidal acts of Israel.

Monitoring Without Enforcement

The United States was expected to close its Civil-Military Coordination Centre near Gaza as the broader Gaza plan stalled. The Centre was designed to monitor the ceasefire and help improve aid flows. This is because most people observed that it failed to deliver meaningful results.

That failure exposes the problem with symbolic mechanisms. A coordination Centre can collect information, but it cannot protect civilians unless it has authority, access, and consequences behind it. Monitoring may record violations only, but it cannot stop them adequately.

Aid Crossings Reveal the Truth

Humanitarian access is the clearest test of the ceasefire. If food, medicine, fuel, water, and shelter materials cannot enter Gaza reliably, then the truce is failing at the most basic level.

OCHA reported on June 5 that Israel had kept Zikim Crossing in northern Gaza closed for two weeks. Aid convoys were being rerouted to Kerem Shalom, as the last remaining cargo crossing. That rerouting created congestion and slowed the collection of critical supplies.

In genocide-affected Gaza, a delayed truck can mean empty kitchens, untreated wounds, missing medicine, and another night in unsafe shelter. UN Secretary-General António Guterres also urged Israel to reopen closed crossings so aid could move rapidly, safely and at scale.

How can a ceasefire that leaves aid trapped at crossings restore civilian life?

The Deadlock Behind the Crisis

Talks on Gaza’s next phase remain stuck on the issue of Hamas disarmament and complete Israeli military withdrawal. Palestinian factions had agreed to most points in the peace blueprint, but Israel is reluctant to keep its military in Palestine.

Israel is trying to hide their heinous plan of genocide advancement in the name of Hamas disarmament. While Hamas completely denies the allegations of Israel and links their efforts to a political process toward Palestinian statehood and an end to illegal occupation.

Gaza needs fewer promises and more enforceable guarantees from the international community now. Civilian shelters must be protected, aid crossings must remain open, medical evacuations must move quickly, and ceasefire violations must be reported quickly. Any stabilization force must have a clear civilian-protection mandate. Israeli withdrawal lines must be transparent, and reconstruction must be tied to Palestinian governance.

Above all, there must be consequences when civilians are killed after a ceasefire has supposedly begun.

Final Thought

Gaza’s crisis shows the danger of genocidal diplomacy without delivery. A ceasefire without enforcement is not peace. Monitoring without consequences cannot protect innocent civilians. Aid promises mean little when crossings remain highly restricted.

Palestinians were promised stability and peace. What they received is continued death, delayed protection, and a plan stronger on paper than in Gaza.

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